A Comparison of Grey Model and Fuzzy Predictive Model for Time Series
The prediction of meteorological parameters at a
meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder
linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the
grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data
points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we
consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and
the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term
prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy
predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a
comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.